http://www.stereophile.com/news/032204sony/

In a nutshell, Sony is starting its own online music service, with files only available in ATRAC3 and compatible only with Sony portable devices.

Somehow, it all becomes clear. Here's the future of online music distribution (according to my nonexistent crystal ball), maybe 20 years from now:

(1) Complete disappearance of independent hardware (music playback) manufacturers. Most will be bought up by RIAA companies, the rest go out of business.

(2) Music companies and hardware (playback) companies are one and the same thing. Play your Sony files on Sony devices, play "AppleFormat" on the iPod.

(3) Total abandonment of universal formats (like the CD). Instead, what we'll have is a different proprietary format for each hardware device.

(4) Users will be stuck into one company once they choose one, because their music will only play on that company's devices. If they switch devices, they get to buy their music all over again.

(5) The only universal, open format is an underground, illegal format.

It's a bleak picture, but this is what I see online distribution (and all music distribution) moving toward. Comments welcome. Am I paranoid, or is this what we're moving toward?

there are some great online music services out there that cater to more "indie" tastes, and don't have DRM slapped onto a proprietary format.

Magnatune
Audio Lunchbox
Bleep
Emusic

of course, if you're into Top 40/iTunes/Napster-esque music, there's always All of MP3... from what i've heard, it's a pretty reputable business. i'm not really sure about how legal their operations are in the US though...

Yes, for now. But I don't see that continuing for very long. In 20 years, do you think services like these will still be around?

Yes. The trend will be toward greater freedom. The music companies just haven't figured out how yet. That interview with the creator of MPEG (http://www.hydrogenaudio.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=20060&view=findpost&p=196787) states the work has started.

The reason music companies want to figure this out is because if they don't, they'll be fighting the piracy battle forever. More importantly, services like those listed (Magnatunes is great) allow for online preview and purchases. Online distribution allows for impulse buying. And that... is motivation enough for any profit minded company. ;-)

But they won't. All they have to do is discontinue the CD, and they've won. Then they keep the lawsuits flowing, and drive the rest completely underground.

And what if you no longer have a portable player that will play unprotected formats? The RIAA companies have money enough to buy it all out in the long term, and the political clout to make open playback hardware illegal (especially if there's a ton of proprietary formats available).

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic... in a negative mood today.

I respectfully disagree with your pessimistic statement:

(5) The only universal, open format is an underground, illegal format.

With the advent of MPEG 4 Audio (AAC LC) and soon HE AAC, which is an International (ISO) standard, and with more companies coming on board all the time supporting that format it will likely be around for quite some time. Also check out rjamorim's listening tests to see the quality of AAC LC vs. MP3. I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

In fact, just today both Real (Real Audio Player 10 GOLD) and WinAmp 5.03 were released, both with improved support for encoding and playback of .M4A (MP4 Audio in AAC LC format) files. They join Apple iTunes, Apple iPods, Apple Quicktime 6.5, Nero 6, Compaact!, Foobar 2000 and a host of others now supporting the M4A/MP4 audio format.

And MPEG 4 Audio can have DRM (digital rights management) attached as in Apple's iTunes Store .M4P files. So music companies can use DRM versions of MPEG 4 Audio if they like and general users can use unprotected M4A/MP4 audio files.

With many of the major audio companies (Thompson, Fraunhoffer, Coding Technolgies, Nero Digital, etc.) supporting MPEG 4 Audio it should be around for a while. In fact, many of these companies promote AAC/MPEG 4 Audio as a replacement for MP3 on their various marketing materials and on their web sites.

So hopefully M4A/MP4 audio will catch on and be around for a while... It may not be universal yet, but it is wel on its way, and with an international ISO/MPEG standard driving it and many companies supporting it now (Real, AOL/WinAmp, Apple, Nero, Coding Technologies, Compaact! and others), it should be a "slam dunk" to being popular IMO.

Hi Fewtch!

I think you are being too pessimistic because I believe that we are still in the dark ages of hardware play back support for specific audio compression formats. What you wrote in your original thread is the circumstance that is today and will probably be for the next few unforseeable years. However, twenty years from today? I do not think anyone here can stretch out a prediction that far ahead into the future. So, you are right but your timing is a bitt off.

I agree with guest0101's opinions: AAC / MP4 / M4A is the early leader in this dizzying world full of audio / video compression formats. Heck, it may be the case that AAC / MP4 / M4A takes the cake in the audio codec side but Microsoft's Windows Media Video (or whatever they call it that is a part of HD-DVD) wins the video codec side. I just do not know what will happen.

It's the wild wild digital west of audio / video formats. Some gunslinger is going to win hands down. I just can't see past the gunsmoke.

Not every label is a member of the RIAA. And I don't think the RIAA would have the legal standing to "discontinue the CD."

The RIAA probably comprises 90% of all record labels (just guessing). If the main market share diverts elsewhere, likely the indies will follow (why wouldn't they?).

Things are clearly (to me) moving rapidly away from the CD. Most people listen to music "on the go" in one way or another, and there are far more convenient ways to carry music. If it gets to the point where most people are buying CDs simply to rip, they'll be discontinued fast. I'm positive that's exactly what will happen, sooner or later.

That it's Sony wreaking this mischief surprises me not. It was they who banked on eternally escalating values of old recordings when they made the fantastic leveraged buyout of the Columbia library. Yes, I'm insinuating that Sony (and other recording companies) pressure legislators to bail them out of financing decisions premised on monopolistic, controlled pricing arrangements.
CDs going extinct wouldn't bother me -- Sandisks or Sony memory sticks are much tidier.
The entire economics of music pricing continues as if the price that enables a retail store to pay its overhead is the fair one for online sales; that's off by roughly one order of magnitude -- maybe more. How will a one terabyte portable be filled? Not with these Sony files, that's for sure.
Sony is just throwing some s**t at the wall in hopes it'll stick.

And it will LL BE RIPPED TO Mp3

I think you're wrong fewtch, because format wars are never good ways to launch a product. (You'd think Sony would know this )

Look at the sucess of DVD - because it was supported by everyone.

Look of the sucess of DVD-A vs SACD. Hmm!

There are many other factors in this comparison, obviously, but format wars slow market growth. Too many competing formats = no market at all!

Why would they stop making CDs if they can make money out of selling them?

Cheers,
David.