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and i think releasing the source now would be a sure way for him to get incarcerated - as he'd have actually done something wrong this time. i believe when you purchase a standard, you must sign a NDA.
There is usually no NDA regarding open standards, but only a copyright related to the text of the standard and the source code.
Example: the text of the ISO standard for mp3 is covered by a copyright, and the copyright owners are forbidding public distribution of the final version. In no way that means that you can not talk about what is inside the standard.
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the decoder will probably become public if VC1 is accepted, but what about the encoder? could it be like HE-AAC? as far as i'm aware there's no opensource implementations of that, though that doesn't necessarily mean there can't be one.
There is on OpenSource one available, but there is some publically available source code, like the 3GPP one.