This article was written 5 years ago.
Lucky or darn good tech journalist.?
Well although is still early to tell. I agree with his vision.

Link is here.
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/2000/09/1...orak_index.html

Adios...
Lucem

Isn't John Dvorak a crumpy 65 year old mostly famous for laughable predictions and comments?





Anyways, he just ran down known pros and cons for each codec in that article, what's so special about it?

Half a decade later, and OGG is still lagging far behind in popularity compared to mp3 (now perhaps even less popular than wma and aac(?))

Unless something changes dramatically in the very near future, I can't see that statement being particularily "lucky"..

But he got this part right..

Quote Busemann:
(now perhaps even less popular than wma and aac(?))

???

outside HA,
on general hardware/software websites, Vorbis is FAR more popular than wma ...
on HA, Vorbis is just slighltly more popular than AAC ... due to the fact that Vorbis is better than faac ... so many people that don't want to crack nero use Vorbis ...
on Doom9, AAC is slighlty more popular than Vorbis ... due to 5.1 & avc ...

the problem is not audio alone anymore it's full audio+video solutions
wmv & avc are more popular than theora ... & that's a big problem for vorbis ...

... popularity of AAC is growing very fast with first usable AVC implementations ...

if x264+faac ever become more popular than vorbis+theora ... even zealots like me will consider switching & even if they didn't switch with nero aac-avc because it wasn't free (trialwares are not free ...) & light ... & that is what is slowly happening ...

vorbis & aac are close ... but wind is blowing faster behind avc pushing aac with it ...

wma being "maybe" more popular than vorbis is really a sentence that made me fall from my chair ... & react ...

nero & itunes will never achieve the spreading popularity of command-line encoders due to their big pack distribution mode ... witch ripping IRC communities will most likely never adopt ...

"hey wanna be member of AAC+AVC irc team XXX go grab 30+30 meg each month!!!"
not gonna happen ...

but if x264+faac ever gets mature before Xiph has a competitive video solution ...
then Garf is right MPEG won the battle ... bye bye Xiph ... hello aaczealot ...

anyway I don't care about MPEG4/OGG as in the end I know sooner or later I will use both ... but wma-wmv 9 will never get in my HD, & I won't let you tell that it's more popular than my beloved vorbis

wtf? he's not talking about AAC here...

and microsoft hold patents in AAC? i thought they only held 2 patents in mpeg-4, one for block-switching in AVC (piddling, not even patent-worthy) and one for some kind of huffman-code prediction thing (also in AVC, also piddling and not patent-worthy).

>>AAC is slighlty more popular than Vorbis ... due to 5.1 & avc ...
5.1 is a big advantage, agree, but how is AVC is connecting with aac ???
Why not ASP + AAC ? Why not AVC + Layer 3 ? Thats are always an options...

Nero Recode, the only publically available HQ AVC encoder, does only
AAC audio.

Oh ! Didn't think of it in this perspective
P.S.
There is also avc encoder created by sysKin now. It is not that impressive (especially on low bitrates) but it is also an option too...

Yes. A local IT mag used to run a monthly column by him, but I guess they got tired of his endless stream of predictions that would never become reality.

I think I remember him once claiming Ellison's "Network PC" (or whatever it was called) would be a huge success.



Well, I can understand why vorbis would be more popular than WMA on software sites. People don't need to download anything to playback and encode WMA...

The point is not seeing if a format is more popular than another at a site, but among the format users. And, in that universe, WMA is surely much more popular than Vorbis, AAC, MPC...



Blame Xiph for going down the gutter after Emmett left and not being able to even set their priorities anymore. Did you know that the Theora bitstream has been frozen? Did you know that Vorbis turned 1.1? Well, most people don't. Xiph barely even does PRs these days.



WMA is obviously more popular man.

Vorbis being more popular at some hardware and software sites only proves that the tech geeks are backing it up - and that is no news for anyone.



Haha! As if end users wanted to even get close to the command line interface...

Get real, man.



I.E, the illegal world. I don't thing that conquering the illegal means of distributing music would be a great trophy for Vorbis.



You have some issue, dude. Go see a shrink.

Why are you guys so pesimist
Look at all the latest DAP that are coming recently.
Like 80% of them are Vorbis compatible.
It seems like an irrversable trend to me and OGG Vorbis is here to stay.
It only needs to be know in the mainstream.

Maybe recurring to guerrilla tactics like DiVix did for Porno movies in the P2P networks, will accelerate the 'agenda'.
But I guess that will taint the reputation of the OGG format.

rjamorim:
well it seems we agree on one thing:
vorbis is more popular than wma for advanced users
wma is more popular than vorbis for newbies ....

but there is a very commun myth you seem to have that I must erease from your mind:
a single newbie, even hundred or thunsand of them, will never have an impact on the choice of next audio standard,

the only reason MP3 is the actual UNDYING standard is that all illegal communities are still supporting it ...

a single illegal average MP3 communitie is more than 10.000 rips alone & you can easyly multiplicate it by 100 communities, ripping easyly 10 CD by week, online 100% of time ...
a lone newbie ripper ripping his 100 CD collections + borrowing 1 CD by week to his friends & going offline 50% of time is NOTHING in this ocean of rips ...

there is a very widely spreaded myth, coming from napster, that lone rippers would be the majority of illegal audio on networks ... this is NOT true ... IRC teams are the heart of all illegal ripping activities, providing an illegal equivalent to what itunes is legally ... IRC teams are even more the heart of all this activity when it comes to news ... 90% of news come from IRC (even newsgroups don't rivalize) ...

napster is NOT the contrary to Itunes ... napster is the shield hidding IRC teams ... 75% of p2p rips are renamed-retagged-uncleaned IRC rips ...

who is leading IRC teams ? computer geeks ...
so contrarily to you I think targetting soft/hardware websites is very important,
it is where the battle for the next audio standard lies ...

vorbis conquering the illegal world is not only a "great trophy" ... it's essential for its survival ...
wma got MS behind, m4a got Mac behind & vorbis got linux behind ...
so far none of MS, Mac & Linux have been strong enough to kill MP3 ...

the reason is simple ... it's not MS, Mac & Linux that provide the whole internet with illegal music ... it's IRC teams via P2P ...

if major networks, let's say efnet-like teams ... choice a codec then there is 75% chance that this will be the next standard ... there is a few small active Vorbis teams actually ... I know no mp4-wma networks ... so Vorbis is OBVIOUSLY more popular than wma for me but yes surely because I am am advanced user seeing what the blind mass can't see ...

the music industry will not end piracy by fighting with napster, kazaa, emule because these are only interface for mass spreading, most of the rippers are NOT on these networks ... they won't run dry the river by redirecting its flow ...

you can say wma is more popular among kazaa newbie as it plays by default on MS, that commandline is not popular among kazaa newbie ... these are minor facts ...

kazaa slaves follow their IRC masters without even knowing they are slaves ... if the communitie leaders ever choice a successor to MP3 APS or CBR 192 ... then this will be the mp3 successor ... & we will not, as lone rippers, be able to do anything against this ...

god bless the music industry for not fighthing the IRC hydra ...

see ya Leviathan

Too bad those 80% account for 5% of the market

[quote]Look at all the latest DAP that are coming recently.
Like 80% of them are Vorbis compatible.[/quote]

Back up that number with data or STFU, please.

I'm tired of people pulling numbers out of their @$$ without having any base for that around here.

[quote]vorbis is more popular than wma for advanced users
wma is more popular than vorbis for newbies ....[/quote]

I never said that! Don't put things on my mouth you nutcase.

And explain "advanced users". Nerds that read slashdot on a daily basis? I thank the God above they aren't majority.

[quote]a single newbie, even hundred or thunsand of them, will never have an impact on the choice of next audio standard[/quote]

And who will have? The pirate world? haha

[quote]the only reason MP3 is the actual UNDYING standard is that all illegal communities are still supporting it ... [/quote]

Amazing. That sentence just made my monocle crash through the wall.

MP3 is the ubiquitous standard because it has gained a huuuge momentum that not even Microsoft, with their marketing might, managed to dispell. Granted, at the early years of MP3 adoption pirate communities like Napster and Audiogalaxy played a major role in format popularization. But these days MP3 is so broadly supported that it can stand on its own feet, thank-you very much. Windows Media Player is ripping to it, every successful DAP supports it, and it became a synonim for compressed digital audio.

[quote]a single illegal average MP3 communitie is more than 10.000 rips alone & you can easyly multiplicate it by 100 communities, ripping easyly 10 CD by week, online 100% of time ...
a lone newbie ripper ripping his 100 CD collections + borrowing 1 CD by week to his friends & going offline 50% of time is NOTHING in this ocean of rips ...[/quote]

Right. But keep in mind that these numbers only matter to people like you, that actually care about the pirate world (makes one wonder...). Most users either don't have the knowledge to access these pirate rips, or are scared shitless of the RIAA.

[quote]there is a very widely spreaded myth, coming from napster, that lone rippers would be the majority of illegal audio on networks ... this is NOT true ... IRC teams are the heart of all illegal ripping activities, providing an illegal equivalent to what itunes is legally ... IRC teams are even more the heart of all this activity when it comes to news ... 90% of news come from IRC (even newsgroups don't rivalize) ...[/quote]

You are obviously overestimating the importance of IRC, but let's try to use this argument anyway.

You spread (mis)information as if IRC was a major hub of illegal file swapping. Wooo-hooo, here comes the clue train, last stop is you: Even if there was so much data being swapped over IRC (there isn't), the VAST majority of users would be passing at large. IRC is painfully hard to learn, the sharing communities have canonical rules that defy reason, and DCC is a damn retarded file transfer protocol. The people sharing rips are usually queued to the max thanks to countless leechers trying to download everything at once (I know, I tried using it once).

The whole IRC sharing scene is unpratical for anyone without loads of patience and loads of masochism.

[quote]napster is the shield hidding IRC teams ...[/quote]

Napster is dead. Or are you talking about Roxio's half-dead music store?

You make no sense.

[quote]who is leading IRC teams ? computer geeks ...
so contrarily to you I think targetting soft/hardware websites is very important,
it is where the battle for the next audio standard lies ...[/quote]

This is so much bullshit, it makes my head spin.

So, you wholeheartedly believe that a bunch of criminals spreading copyrighted work will ride the whims of the media industry?

That's insanity.

[quote]vorbis conquering the illegal world is not only a "great trophy" ... it's essential for its survival ... [/quote]



I wonder what would be Monty's comment on this.

[quote]wma got MS behind, m4a got Mac behind & vorbis got linux behind ...
so far none of MS, Mac & Linux have been strong enough to kill MP3 ...[/quote]

You miss the point again.

None of them is competing against MP3. MP3 is unkillable. They are just competing against each other. And, from what it looks so far, the lead belongs to WMA (thanks to the efforts of MS alone) and AAC (thanks to the efforts of Apple alone)

Where are Xiph's efforts?

[quote]the reason is simple ... it's not MS, Mac & Linux that provide the whole internet with illegal music ... it's IRC teams via P2P ...[/quote]

So, you believe all the music demand on the internet is for illegal stuff?

I'll give a call to Steve Jobs and tell him to shut down the iTMS right now, there surely isn't any demand for his legal material.

[quote]if major networks, let's say efnet-like teams ... choice a codec then there is 75% chance that this will be the next standard ...[/quote]



You give too much credit to these pirate groups. Makes me wonder if you're not a member of one of them.

Here, let me try to explain it to you one last time. It's called "supply and demand", and used mostly to explain economical theories, but can be perfectly adapted to several other fields of study.

Now, the demand is created by the end users, or the consumers, if you prefer that way. Consumers demand "give me MP3 files, for that is the format that will play on my Winamp, my DAP and my DVD player".

The pirate groups produce the supply. One of them will make Vorbis files, that is not what the end user demanded. The end user plays it on winamp, no problem, but will hardly be able to load it on his DAP and will most surely not be able to load it on his DVD player.

End user gets pissed, and decides to look for another supplier (pirate group) that will feed him with compliant files (MP3). The ahead-of-his-time supplier that provided Vorbis releases will have his releases nuked and will fall in disgrace. Fin.


I hope you now understand why MP3 is an ubiquitous format, it will remain being an ubiquitous format, and any release group releasing in another format is shooting their own feet (unless it is releasing for a limited audience, like some of the well known MPC release groups, but then again the audience already knew about this format anyway)


The rundown: pirate ripping groups are NOT going to help popularize anything. They are preaching to the converted, people that are techie enough to manage to find the pirate releases they want. If you want to convert people, you need marketing, widespread hardware and software support, etc.

[quote]the music industry will not end piracy by fighting with napster, kazaa, emule because these are only interface for mass spreading, most of the rippers are NOT on these networks [/quote]

You said it yourself, the large p2p networks are doing mass spreading. The IRC sharing is so insignificant compared to eMule and Kazaa that is not worth the bother for the Music Industry. And, since it is insignificant, it won't help popularize any format, no matter how much you wholeheartedly want it.

[quote]you can say wma is more popular among kazaa newbie as it plays by default on MS, that commandline is not popular among kazaa newbie ... these are minor facts ...[/quote]

Riiiight, the way to go is to create a tech-friendly only codec, NOT a user-friendly one.

Dude, your ideas are so devoid of substance and sense, I don't even know why I waste my time discussing with you.

[quote]if the communitie leaders ever choice a successor to MP3 APS or CBR 192 ... then this will be the mp3 successor ... & we will not, as lone rippers, be able to do anything against this ...[/quote]

Right. And if the community (which you seem to be a member) decides that linux is better than windows, it means Bill Gates should start filing for bankrupcy.

[quote]god bless the music industry for not fighthing the IRC hydra ...[/quote]

Fear not, if it ever gets big enough, it will be fought.




Edit: I can't seem to fix the broken quotes.

So true. IRC is only used by people who are insane enough to wait for long ques and such. But, as a user myself (mainly for chat) i hate to see its reputation so tarnished by people who dont realise that if they spread misinformation they might get some networks shutdown.

Oggzealot, if you use IRC, good on you! Just dont go telling everyone how evil it is and how many pirate rips are on it because otherwise your favourite networks might get shutdown. Those of us who love our IRC will be mighty pissed if idiots start screaming about how IRC is the hub of all pirated material that circulate the internet.

Mass distribution comes from p2p programs designed for it, such as bittorrent and those others that are built from the ground up for this specific purpose. Because, they can move files a hell of a lot more efficently then IRC can.

I believe original releases almost excusivily come from Newsgroups because of the degree of anonymity it gives the releaser. Well, i cant get newsgroups, so i cant be sure on this. No releaser in thier right mind would offer thier own files for people to download from them.

On the subject of releases, i seriously doubt that any of the 'super powerful pirate groups' will ever dictate anything when theres hundreds of millions of people who atucally own CD's. They will use thier iTunes/Windows Media Player to rip their CD's. That is what will dictate the victor of the next format war, what is easiest to access and use.

Ever wondered why so much porn is in wmv? Because windows automatically downloads the codecs for it. Simplicity is what its all about to people who dont give a flying toss and "just want it to work".

Very good points, specially about newsgroups (alt.binaries anyone?)

I really don't want to go into one more discussion like this, as these threads only bring out the worst in everybody and bullshit and zealotry is all over the place...
But this one statement
is simply not true. Even if rjamorim has stated it several times before.

A windows install CD only comes with an old version of WMP. In order to playback newer WMA9 and WMA9PRO files you'll need to get Windows Updater connected and download WMP9 or 10 and codecs. In order to encode these files you'll have to get up your browser and download the MS encoder. It's large and bulky and got a userinterface that's completly beyond me....

So in fact you'll have to download a considerable amount of megabytes to achive the above stated.

In order to encode and playback ogg, mpc or mp3 you can get away with downloading a few kilobytes.

And I won't even go into closed formats and DRM and all that jazz.....

Whatever.

Nope, to playback WMA standard 9, you can even use WMP6.4. It's backwards compatible with older WMA Std.

WMAPro indeed might require updates, but that's beyond the point of this discussion.



You can encode directly from WMP.