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If you look at the Top Ten Reviews list of portable audio players, 10 out of 10 play MP3 files out of the box, nine play WMA and only one plays Ogg: the Cowan iAudio X5. (The iRiver H10 has dropped Ogg support.) Of course, only two of these devices play AAC files, but one of those is the Apple iPod, which has the majority of the market.
It would be nice if all those crooning about the impending death of MP3 and WMA did not blatantly ignore the above fact. They both have wider support than anything else. MP3 isn't going away due to AAC or WMA any more than .txt files will disappear due to ODF/MS's Office formats.
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However, Ogg still carries potential risks, because there is no guarantee that it doesn't infringe someone's patents.
True, but if that's really the case, how is it that FLAC is the most widely supported lossless format without any patent/IP issues? Or is that because its development predates that of formats from incumbents (WMA Lossless, ALAC)?
I have nothing against Ogg, the tests clearly show it's an excellent format. Unfortunately, achieving widespread support is more than a simple academic exercise that produces the best quality output (a point lost on many developers). From my viewpoint, FLAC rose to the top in the lossless category primarily because it was actively developed and promoted before similar incumbent projects (until just recently, lossless was pretty much ignored by MS and Apple, MS had a format in name only).
Ogg, on the other hand, is "just another" (in the marketing sense) lossy format competing against strongly entrenched MP3, WMA and AAC which are natively supported by the 2 primary preinstalled media players on the market. Neither of those 2 natively support Ogg, and they're unlikely ever to, either. The average user has to go pretty far out of his way to use the format, relative to the Big 3 codecs. I won't even get into the tagging/frontend issues, since the average person investigating the format probably wouldn't get that far.
As harsh as it may seem, while the codec will continue to exist and (sporadically, it seems) developed, I can't say I see much hope for it becoming mainstream either. However, I don't think it will suffer the same fate of being consigned to the abyss like MPC (those who say otherwise are just in denial), RealAudio, and ATRAC3