Perhaps I am misunderstanding the original question.
Is the question not:
Live Concert -> Perfect Microphones -> Perfect Recording -> MP3
VS
Live Concert -> Perfect Microphones -> Perfect Recording -> CD -> MP3
?
If so, I think benski nailed the answer out of the gate.
QUOTE(benski @ Jan 29 2008, 20:42)

Generally speaking, they would be the same.
Howevever, if you are recording @ 24bit / 48kHz, then would suffer a very slight (but likely inaudible) quality loss with #2, because you would have to downsample to 16bit / 44.1kHz
with his later clarification
QUOTE
Again, assuming that you are recording at 24bit / 48kHz (48kHz being MP3's highest available samplerate), you would gain -96dB of noise and lose frequency info above about 21kHz when downsampling to CD levels.
Perhaps I misunderstand the question?
You asked specifically how much worse case two would
sound.
Let us make the (reasonably safe) assumption that MP3 is transparent to your ears @ 320 CBR (the bitrate in your question.)
So the difference is that case one will sound to you like 24bit / 48kHz and case two will sound like 16bit / 44.1kHz.
Can you tell a difference? Likely not. But this too can be tested w/o needing to go to the lengths described in your original question.