A HTPC is, in a very simplistic way, a mix of a CD player (audio) and a DVD player (video). So it has to remain fast and simple. That's why its OS has to be fast and simple.
XP is a light OS compared to Vista (just take a look at their respective sizes in a hard disk). Yet XP can be made much lighter with well-known utils like nLite. A "light XP" will have a shorter boot time than any Vista version (which is an essential feature for a HTPC IMO), while preserving all functions that are essential to a HTPC.
XP will work better than Vista in old PCs, with slow processors and not much RAM. Vista needs a fast processor and at least 1.5 GB RAM to run decently (and it's still less reactive than XP when both are installed in the same PC with 1.5 GB RAM - I have experienced that).
XP already has all the needed audio and video software :
- foobar / Winamp / etc. for the audio, with Kernel Streaming / ASIO support,
- MPC / KMP / PowerDVD / etc. for the video,
- ffdshow / Avisynth / Reclock / Powerstrip / CoreAVC / etc. for postprocessing and other video stuff,
- etc.
So I don't see any serious reason for using Vista within a HTPC (obviously I won't take into consideration any aesthetic reason). Heck, I don't see any serious reason for using Vista at all, but that's another story.